ANALYSIS OF THE FINANCIAL VIABILITY IN REAL STATE INVESTMENTS: DETERMINISTIC APPROACH AND RISK SIMULATIONS

Francimar Natália Silva, Marco Aurélio Marques Ferreira, Felipe Luis Santiago Pazzini, Luiz Antônio Abrantes

Abstract


Nowadays, the real state market is one of the most significant sections of the Brazilian economy being considered great employment generator and income. This facilitates to move great volumes of financial resources, due its high level of sectorial interrelation. This way, the success of the investment in real state enterprises is fundamental, because this is an key-activity for the national development. Because of that, it makes necessary a previous analysis of financial viability so that the entrepreneur has larger safety taking his decision. However, there are few works specifically linked to the real state section exist. Like this, the present study had a objective to accomplish an analysis of financial viability, complemented by simulations of risk of a project of a real state investment, which consists of the construction of three residential buildings in the municipal district of Viçosa. The financial analysis was accomplished by the methods of evaluation of real state projects and, for the risk analysis was used the technique of Monte Carlo' simulation, using the program @RISK.. The minimum rate of attractively (MRA) considered in the case studied was 1.5%. From the financial analysis, the following data were obtained: payback in the 19th month; liquid present value (LPV) of R$250,688.57; rate of internal returns (RIR) of 5.42% per month and profit index (PI) of 1.27. The result of the simulations, indicated for the exit variables, LPV, RIR and PL medium values of R$ 194.899, 30.5% a month and of 1.26, respectively. For the distributions of accumulated probabilities it can be concluded that this project of real state investment is financially viable and it has low risk. As conclusion, the process of simulation techniques in the generation of information has extreme importance for taking decisions.

Key Words: Financial viability. Simulations of risk. Real state investment.

Keywords


Viabilidade econômica. Simulação de risco. Investimento imobiliário.



DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7867/1980-4431.2007v12n3p03-17

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